Betting on the NBA

Effects of injuries on NBA point spreads

      How much effect do injuries have on the results of NBA games? Lots, and lots, and lots, and lots of study went into this, so here goes. ITIGHO the effects are never as much as you think. In fact, there are some players who make their team better by not playing. Remember Derrick Coleman? So here’s a general breakdown:

Sixth man, key bench player: 0 – 0.5 points

Starter (4th or 5th best player): 0.5 -- 1.0 points

Good starter: 1.5 – 2.0 points

All-star: 2.5 – 3.0 points

Big star: 3.5 -- 4.0 points

Superstar: 4.5 – 6.0 points

      Applying these values can prove quite a chore at times and it’s quite tempting to just say to heck with it and skip the game. No shame in that! Remember, the Star-Spangled Banner is always playing somewhere.

      Let’s use as an example a game between the Lakers and Spurs. Just before tip-off, Manu Ginubili has to go to the ER to have kidney stones removed. TIG estimates his worth at about 2.5 points. There are so many factors that go into each game that we’ll never know exactly what his worth is, so that’s just an estimate. The game is in San Antonio and the Spurs are favored by 2 1/2 points. Make an adjustment and the game is around a pick.

      More to come...this is a work in progress.

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